Review and forecast of rubber market in the first

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The unified evaluation of the rubber market in the first half of 2005 is that the supply is tight, the demand increases, the price remains strong, and the inventory consumption is rapid. After the transition period of supply and demand balance in 2004, a new round of market pattern is taking shape in favor of natural rubber owners, and the domestic natural rubber market price will continue to rise against the season

according to the natural rubber spot trading information provided by Haikou trading office of Hainan agricultural reclamation e-commerce trading center, Hainan reclamation area sold 8429100 tons of rubber in the first half of 2005, an increase of 10.13% to 7768 tons compared with 7652300 tons in the same period last year. When the reclamation area suffered the once-in-a-century drought, and by mid May, 1/3 of the rubber plantations put into operation had not been cut or were forced to stop cutting, it was really hard won to achieve sales growth. In the first half of the year, the transaction rate of pending orders was as high as 70%, an increase of 18 percentage points over the previous four years, especially in May and June, the transaction rate of pending orders was as high as 90%. It can be seen that the market transactions are hot and increasingly optimistic

the rubber price was affected by the low closing last year. As soon as the market opened this year, it followed the low track and once fell below 12000 yuan per ton. On January 12, the lowest price since January 9, 2003 occurred. The international No. 5 glue was sold for only 116500 yuan per ton. At that time, people were worried that the glue price would exceed 11000 yuan, and the monthly comprehensive average price of dry glue was only 120700 yuan per ton. Compared with 1407600 yuan per ton in the same period last year, the tons fell below 2000 yuan, which was very obvious. From the opening of the market at the beginning of the year to March 15, the rubber price has been hovering around 12600 yuan per ton. Encouragingly, it began to climb on March 16, breaking through the 13000 yuan mark, getting rid of the downturn for more than two months, and making people see hope for this year's rubber market again. As expected, by the end of June this year, the comprehensive average price of rubber in the reclamation area had reached 1335600 yuan per ton. Although there was still a distance from the average of 143090 yuan per ton in the first half of last year, on the whole, it was 10 yuan more than the annual average price of 1334600 yuan per ton last year. It is gratifying that the trend of rubber price this year is exactly the opposite to that of last year. Last year, it was high first and then low. In the first half of the year, the average price per ton was 143.09 million yuan, while in the second half of the year, the average price was only 128.47 million yuan; This year, however, it has been moving towards a low first and then a high second. At the end of the month, the international No. 5 glue has broken through 14700 yuan per ton, and the performance is strong. In 2004, people in the industry believed that it was the transition period of natural rubber supply and demand balance, and most of them were pessimistic about the rubber market after the transition period, but the fact was just the opposite. After the transition of supply and demand balance, there was a good situation of big waste and too much expense. All kinds of signs showed that we had reason to be optimistic about the future market, and hoped that the new round of supply and demand relationship would develop in the direction of benefiting rubber owners. According to statistics, since the opening of the domestic natural rubber market in 1994, the highest average price of rubber to improve market competitiveness was 1.3923 yuan per ton in 1995. At that time, the international natural rubber price was 1450 dollars per ton, but now the international rubber price has reached 1498 dollars per ton. According to the information provided by the Shanghai Office of the trading center, the natural rubber inventory of Shanghai futures is only more than 3000 tons, and it is unable to compete with the spot for the consumer market; In addition, Vietnam will rectify its border trade and crack down on smuggling, which will improve the market environment of China's natural rubber, which will be conducive to the participation of domestic rubber in the international division of labor as an equal competitor and the realization of price in line with international standards

this year, the rubber price has moved steadily from low to high. The most fundamental reason is that the relationship between market supply and demand has changed. Affected by the global drought, Thailand, which accounted for nearly 38% of the total global natural rubber production, also suffered from drought in the first half of the year. The original export orders could not be delivered on time. In order to avoid being punished for violations, Thailand was forced to purchase at a high price from the Singapore spot market; Although Indonesia will continue to increase production this year, the problems it faces are more prominent, such as the signs of deciduous weather in western Sumatra; In the past few years, the area of rubber plantations has decreased, many farmers have changed to palm trees in order to get faster returns, and the potential for increasing production is also weakening. With the change of market supply and demand, the initiative of natural rubber owners to control the market has emerged step by step. At the International Rubber Conference held in Chiang Mai, Thailand, in May 2005, Thai Prime Minister Thaksin said that he would do his best to promote the price of natural rubber to 60 baht per kilogram (US $1500 per ton). By the end of June, the spot price of Thai glue had reached US $1498 per ton, basically achieving the goal set by the Thai Prime Minister

it is worth mentioning that the concentrated latex market is particularly outstanding in the generally promising markets with advantages such as stable colloidal properties. According to statistics, from 1994 to 2004, the sales volume of concentrated latex in the reclamation area (including clear rubber with attached products) accounted for only 15% of the total sales volume of rubber. Using the same fresh latex to produce concentrated latex can earn 1428.48 yuan more per ton than that used to produce standard rubber, and contribute 3 percentage points to the total average price page of rubber in the reclamation area. The average price per ton is 148900 yuan, and 1989 yuan more than the average price per ton of standard rubber series products, It shows that the latex Market and price continue to be optimistic. Meilian and Wushi latex products have initially shown their brand advantages in this study, and have become a hot commodity in the market. Therefore, the group company should, according to the market demand, gradually increase the output of concentrated latex by using the formed production capacity of large factories, so as to improve the operating efficiency of natural rubber on the whole

with the easing of the drought, the supply of resources will increase in the high production period in the second half of the year, and the price may also fall slightly. However, due to the strong support of many positive factors, the comprehensive average price of rubber this year may still be close to or higher than the highest in 1995

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