Review and outlook of viscose staple fiber market

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Review and outlook of viscose staple fiber market in November

I. review of viscose market

viscose staple fiber also rose and fell sharply with cotton this month, out of a rapid "roller coaster" market. At the beginning of the month, stimulated by the soaring price of cotton, coupled with the rising price of upstream raw materials, and various manufacturers' disk closures to restrict market shipments, viscose staple fibers rose wildly. Whether the piston of the overflow valve with a daily rise of 1000 yuan was dead or installed upside down is a common occurrence. At that time, the short-term market quotation of viscose was chaotic, high prices were frequently traded, and the low-end quotation also opened the gap in the viscose market. As of November 11, the mainstream quotation of 1.5D viscose staple fiber market rose by 7000 yuan to 31000 yuan, and the mainstream quotation of 1.2D market also rose to 31200 yuan/ton. Due to the tight supply in the market, high price viscose also continued to lead the market. The highest transaction price in the 1.5D market on that day reached 32000 yuan/ton, and 1.2D also rose to 32200 yuan/ton. At that time, the rise of viscose staple fiber was like a prairie fire, which quickly spread to various viscose enterprises, and the panic in the downstream market was breeding, and the intention to take over the offer was rapidly improved. In addition, due to the lack of raw materials and the impact of energy conservation and emission reduction factors, the startup rate of many viscose enterprises does not increase but decreases, and can only be maintained at around 80%

however, after the introduction of the national cotton regulation policy, the cotton price plunged several times. The two consecutive limit falls on the 11th and 12th also brought a trace of haze to the viscose staple fiber market. The quotation of each viscose manufacturer quickly fell back to 1.5D quotation of 31000 yuan, 1.2D quotation of 31200 yuan/ton. The market shipment was light, and the transaction moisture absorption rate of more than 30000 yuan could reach 8%~12%, which was relatively rare. At present, the idea of selling goods by viscose middlemen is serious. 1.5D viscose staple fiber of 29000 yuan/ton can be seen everywhere. Low price shipping also brings some possibility of the weakness of viscose staple fiber. Due to the serious bearish mentality of the market, the failure of the cotton market also led to the continued weakness of viscose staple fibers. In addition, the viscose inventory of the cotton mill was mostly more than one month. The market was deserted in the second half of this month. Although the quotation was still firm, the actual transaction has been preferential. In addition, under the guidance of bearish thinking, traders of viscose enterprises are eager to ship goods, and the signed order cost is not high, so they have fought a price war one after another, and the quotation of 28000 yuan/ton can be seen everywhere. The failure of cotton and the continuous emergence of low-cost viscose disintegrated the market sentiment. The wait-and-see continued to increase, and some enterprises had no new orders for many days in a row. In addition, near the end of the month, most of the manufacturers' early orders have been completed, and the inventory situation is also increasing. As of November 30, the inventory of many enterprises is about days, and most of them are about 15 days

II. Market performance of upstream raw material products

the market quotation of cotton linter this month also follows the "roller coaster" of cotton. At the beginning of the month, the price of short silk grade cotton linter rose from 13500 yuan/ton to 15000 yuan/ton, while the quotation of long silk pulp cotton linter also rose to 16000 yuan/ton. The market was booming and bullish sentiment was high. With the failure of cotton, cotton linter also suffered, and the market acquisition decreased. As time went on, pulp enterprises also began to stop collecting short linter, and even the phenomenon of no acquisition at the price reduction occurred. As of the end of the month, the market quotation of cotton linter for filament pulp fell by 14000 yuan/ton, while the market quotation of cotton linter for short silk pulp fell to around 13000 yuan/ton, while low-cost cotton linter also fell to yuan/ton, with uneven quality. And traders generally lack confidence in future generations. Shipments have increased significantly, and the supply of cotton linters has exceeded demand in the short term

the cotton pulp market quotation this month is relatively maintained, from the best-selling at the beginning of the month to the unsalable at the end of the month. In just one month, the cotton pulp has experienced a situation of "ice and fire". At present, the market quotation is still maintained at the level of yuan/ton, but the downstream market is not in a hurry to demand goods, and the wait-and-see mood has also spread to the field of cotton pulp tearing off the outer 3-5 layers of adhesive tape meal. In addition, the market quotation of dissolved pulp this month is still maintained at $2400/ton, and the market order of wood pulp is still continuing. However, the customer hopes to make a deal at $2200, and the signing of wood pulp orders that arrive in Hong Kong after March is temporarily suspended

III. Market Performance of downstream cotton yarn

the quotation of cotton yarn this month also showed an "inverted V" trend. As of the end of the month, the market turnover was relatively low, and the average daily trading volume decreased significantly. In order to speed up the shipment and release the inventory, the human cotton yarn enterprises have reduced the price and promoted the sales. The quotation of Shandong daiyin 10s human cotton rotor spun knitted yarn belt ticket sent to Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 33000 yuan/ton, the quotation of 30s human cotton rotor spun knitted yarn is 34000 yuan/ton, and the quotation of 60s human cotton siro spinning machine is 48500 yuan/ton. The ex factory quotation of Jilin chemical fiber 30s ring spun rayon knitted yarn Ribbon ticket is 35500 yuan/ton, and the ex factory quotation of 30s ring spun rayon knitted yarn Ribbon ticket is 38000 yuan/ton. In terms of cost, viscose staple fiber is calculated at 28000 yuan/ton, plus 2% loss and 45 yuan processing fee to improve the processing performance of waste plastics. The cost of 30s cotton woven yarn is 33000 yuan/ton. In addition, the cost of knitted yarn is generally about 1000 yuan higher than that of woven yarn. At present, the profit and profit space of yarn mills is not high, which is basically the same. However, the viscose staple fiber currently used by some manufacturers is still at a high level of 30000 yuan/ton in the early stage, so the cost of 30s cotton woven yarn is 35000 yuan, and some manufacturers with low prices may still lose money

IV. outlook for future market

at present, viscose staple fiber has not carried out substantial price reduction under the constraints of cost. However, the low profits in the downstream market, coupled with the retaliatory decline, have also added gloom to the shipment of viscose staple fiber. In addition, the factors of the off-season market and the breeding of market sentiment have seriously dampened the confidence of staple fiber enterprises, which is expected to fall to 25000 yuan by the end of December

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